Published 2026-06-02
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Abstract
Ushbu tezisda O‘zbekiston Respublikasi hududida suv tanqisligi indeksi vaqtli qator ekonometrik modellar orqali tahlil qilingan. Vaqtli qatolarda eng ko‘p ishlatiladigan ACF va PACF grafiklari, AIC, BIC, HQIC usullari oqali ARIMA modeli tanlandi hamda uning diognostikasi Ljung-Box, Jarque–Bera va ARCH testlari orqali tekshirildi. Natijalarga ko‘ra ARIMA(2.2)(2.0) suv tanqisligi indeksini eng yaxshi tasniflashi kelib chiqdi. Modeli natijalariga ko‘ra hududda suv tanqisligi darajasi 2030-yilga kelib 168% ni tashkil qiladi, bu esa davlat tomonidan tanqisligini oldini olish borasida bir qator strategik qadamlarni rejalashtirish ahamiyatliligini oshiradi. Shuningdek, prognoz natijalari suv resurslarini samarali boshqarish va suv tejovchi texnologiyalarni keng joriy etish zarurligini ko‘rsatadi hamda ekologik barqarorlikni ta’minlaydi.
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